College football picks: Top 25's 5 losses to unranked teams last week run counter to season's trend

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Last week was the toughest of the season for Associated Press Top 25 teams as a group, with five losing to unranked opponents a week after three others went down the same way.

Big picture, the upper echelon of the sport is on track to have one of its better seasons against the unranked.

The Top 25 is 95-17 against unranked opponents for an .848 winning percentage that, if it holds, would be tied for fifth-best since at least 2000, according to Sportradar. Last year, the Top 25 was 191-41 (.823).

Teams in the top 10 when they played unranked opponents are 32-5 through Week 7, with Penn State's loss to UCLA the one we remember best. The .865 winning percentage is middle-of-the-pack since 2000 but well ahead of the top 10's record of 78-15 (.839) for the 2024 season.

Over the last quarter century, 2006 ranks as the best for the Top 25 (206-30, .873) and 2010 the best for the top 10 (79-4, .952).

Enough geeking out. Here are picks for this week’s games involving AP Top 25 teams and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

The Badgers haven't scored more than 14 points against a power-conference opponent and are coming off a 37-0 home loss to Iowa. Ohio State is allowing just 6.8 points per game to lead nation.

Pick: Ohio State 45-3.

The Cardinals' offensive line could have a problem coping with Miami's ferocious front seven, though the last two meetings were decided by a touchdown.

Pick: Miami 38-26.

The Spartans have lost three straight and Jonathan Smith's job security is getting shaky. Don't expect the Hoosiers to take their foot off the gas.

Pick: Indiana 51-17.

Experienced backup Rueben Owens II is set to take over as Aggies' primary ball-carrier for the injured Le’Veon Moss. Arkansas has scored at least 31 points in all but one of its six games and is still just 2-4.

Pick: Texas A&M 41-24.

Mississippi QB Trinidad Chambliss's first road start comes at Sanford Stadium in Athens, where the Rebels haven't won since 1996.

Pick: Georgia 32-29.

Crimson Tide have beaten three straight ranked opponents, are 10-0 at home under second-year coach Kalen DeBoer and have won 10 straight against the Volunteers in Tuscaloosa.

Pick: Alabama 35-26.

Both teams have uncertain quarterback situations. Tech has the better backup. The Red Raiders also have one of the most disruptive defenses in the country.

Pick: Texas Tech 34-22.

The Ducks, who are making their second cross-country trip in three weeks, take out some frustration after its loss to Indiana. The Scarlet Knights are desperate to avoid a fourth straight loss.

Pick: Oregon 36-20.

Commodores are favored against LSU for the first time since 1948 and for the first time against a ranked opponent since at least 1978, according to CBS Sports Research.

Pick: LSU 21-20.

Since coughing up the ball five times against Illinois five weeks ago, the Blue Devils have committed one turnover and recorded 12 takeaways.

Pick: Duke 33-30.

The Fighting Irish have allowed a total of 27 points over last three games but Jayden Maiava and the Trojans’ offense are hot.

Pick: USC 33-28.

John Mateer had a rough outing against Texas in his first game after thumb surgery. He declared himself 100% this week.

Pick: Oklahoma 22-19.

This matchup of the top two rushing offenses in the Big 12 will come down to which team stops the run better. The Cougars have been a bit better at that.

Pick: BYU 24-23.

Missouri totaled nine sacks in their first two SEC games. Only one QB has been sacked more than Auburn's Jackson Arnold (21).

Pick: Missouri 27-21.

Virginia should be fresh after an open date. Fatigue could be a factor for Cougars, who are playing their third straight road game and second in a row east of the Mississippi River.

Pick: Virginia 44-26.

FAU's Air Raid offense generates lots of yards, but Caden Veltkampit has a problem with interceptions (9). Only five teams have picked off more passes than the Bulls (9).

Pick: South Florida 48-24.

Arch Manning, coming off back-to-back games against top-40 defenses, should have an opportunity to break out.

Pick: Texas 31-14.

The Blazers are playing their first game since the firing of Trent Dilfer. Brendon Lewis-led Tigers should be able to move ball at will against American Conference's worst defense.

Pick: Memphis 38-19.