U.S. Middle Market Earnings and Revenue Show Steady Growth in Q4 2025

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NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan 13, 2026--

Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Revenue grew 2% during the same period.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Middle market companies demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Our data suggests that U.S. economic growth has a broader foundation than AI-related capital expenditures. We believe our data from the months of October and November offer encouraging insight about a period when economic data may be limited. Companies in our sample generally showed continued resiliency despite the challenges of a government shutdown, tariff costs and signs of cautious consumer behavior.”

Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “Our data suggests U.S. companies continued to perform steadily and navigate a challenging and uncertain environment. Robust revenue for healthy enterprise software companies in our Technology sector shows how companies that are not AI hyperscalers are growing at a steady clip. While investors should remain mindful that we are in a continued period of heightened credit stress and elevated default rates, our data shows that the core middle market continues to adapt well to this environment.”

The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.

The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.

We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy; and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.

Effective January 1, 2026, Golub Capital enhanced its data collection capabilities, providing for more comprehensive data from an expanded sample of GCAI constituents. We believe our enhanced data collection capabilities increase data quality and strengthen the analytical rigor of future reports. Backtesting has confirmed historical comparability. The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by certain industry segments. Given the index’s limited exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted” versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned sectors, among others.

About the Golub Capital Middle Market Report

The Golub Capital Middle Market Report analyzes the results of the Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 privately owned companies in the Golub Capital loan portfolio for the first two months of each calendar quarter. It compares these results to the financial performance of well-known market indexes, including the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. The GCAI is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.

About Golub Capital

Golub Capital is a market-leading, award-winning direct lender and experienced private credit manager. The firm specializes in delivering reliable, creative and compelling financing solutions to companies backed by private equity sponsors. Golub Capital’s sponsor finance expertise also forms the foundation of its Broadly Syndicated Loan and Credit Opportunities investment programs. Golub Capital nurtures long-term, win-win partnerships that inspire repeat business from private equity sponsors and investors.

As of January 1, 2026, Golub Capital had over 1,100 employees and over $90 billion of capital under management, a gross measure of invested capital including leverage. The firm has offices in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. For more information, please visit golubcapital.com.

About Dr. Edward I. Altman

A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150 articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Important Disclosure

The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

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SOURCE: Golub Capital

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PUB: 01/13/2026 05:45 PM/DISC: 01/13/2026 05:45 PM

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