Reality and Narrative

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has developed, the narrative has become, Russia=Bad Guy, Ukraine=Good Guy.  I think this is based mostly on the fact that Russia was the initial military aggressor in the conflict and echoes of Soviet dominance of the region.  But the fact of the matter is that there are no real good guys in this conflict, only greater and lesser bad guys.  We are formally allied with neither nation, though there is far more of a natural affinity for Ukraine than Russia.  Our role in the conflict is based on our best interests, not loyalty to one side or the other.

Under such circumstances, that Trump seems to be recalibrating our relations with both nations should be unsurprising.  Remember, the fundamental question is not between right and wrong, but “What is best for the United States?”  At the moment, supplies of diesel fuel matter a great deal to this nation.  If we have to cuddle up a bit more to Russia to get it, well, that’s geopolitics for you.

Yes, Russia was the military aggressor in this war – that’s undeniable.  But Ukraine was, long before the conflict became kinetic, a kleptocracy.  At the moment, the “miracle” of their drone production accounts for 40% of their GDP.  Think about that for just a minute.  To sustain that, what are the people of Ukraine being denied?  That’s about what we did during World War 2 when things were rationed, etc.  Add to that the fact that Ukraine has rarely, throughout its history, been truly independent.  Prior to the Soviet Union, the region generally considered Ukraine spent extensive periods under Russian, Lithuanian and Polish control.  The Russian and Ukrainian languages are remarkably similar – anyone speaking one can be easily understood by someone speaking the other.  Ukraine has some cultural distinctions, but then so does Alabama.  Ukraine is fighting an existential battle based on claims to an existence that never really was.

Which takes me back to the kleptocracy charge.  In the end that is what this conflict is about – which set of oligarchs gets to enjoy the spoils, Putin and his gang of thugs or Zelensky and his. In the end this conflict more resembles a battle between Afghani warlords than a nation/state conflict.  The good guy/bad guy narrative is a tool to feed American politics and has little to do with the reality on the ground where Europe and Asia collide.

If you want a good analogy, watch “The Mayor of Kingstown” on Paramount+.  Jeremy Renner plays the ex-con brother of a cop and spends his life negotiating deals between gangs in and out of prison, a corrupted police department and an even more corrupt prison administration.  There is not a good guy in sight, just the lesser of evils.  The U.S. is in the Renner role vis-a-vie the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

So spare me the narrative and especially spare me the moralizing.  Morality long ago left the building in this conflict.